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The Valenzetti Equation

The Valenzetti Equation is the name of a calculation made by the mathematician Enzo Valenzetti and also the name of an out-of-print book by Gary Troup.

Little is known about the Equation itself—the only person in the world who has a copy, according to Gary Troup, is Alvar Hanso.

Furthermore, in the interview linked above, we learn that Alvar Hanso bought not only all copies of Troup's Valenzetti Equation book but also the rights to reprint it.

The actual Valenzetti Equation itself is often described by most people as "predicting when the world will end." However, this is inaccurate.

According to the Valenzetti entry at LostPedia, which is "cited by Speaker as being 'VERY accurate'," the Valenzetti Equation is actually a prediction of how many years are left before human beings are killed off as a result of global nuclear warfare. Sometime after the Cuban Missile Crisis was over on October 28, 1962, the U. N. commissioned Valenzetti to perform a study to determine how likely global nuclear warfare would become. He completed his work less than a year later. In light of this context, the Valenzetti Equation seems to be a type of special Cold War game theory.

No one knows specifically how much time the Valenzetti Equation says we have left—if Gary Troup's claim is true, only Alvar Hanso has access to this information. However, since the Equation was most likely developed from Valenzetti's extensive knowledge of politics, social struggle, population forecasting, and game theory, it seems probable that, given enough resources, one could duplicate his work.

If more information is discovered about the Valenzetti Equation, it will be posted here.

Summary of Facts about the Equation:
- It predicts when everyone will die from global nuclear warfare.
- Enzo Valenzetti developed a year after the Cuban Missle Crisis.
- Alvar Hanso is the only person in the world who has a copy of it.
- Gary Troup wrote a book about it called The Valenzetti Equation.
- Alvar Hanso bought all the copies of Troup's book and the copyright.
- No one outside the Hanso Foundation has access to the Equation.
- Very few people inside the Hanso Foundation have access to it.

Additional Links:
Gary Troup - A summary of The Valenzetti Equation by Gary Troup
Interview - A transcript of Gary Troup's interview on Book Talk
Game Theory - Wikipedia entry on game theory

- Matt the Pale


Blogger fitz66 said...


6/18/2006 10:36 AM  
Blogger k.barrick said...

I find it very hard to believe that Gary Troup would not have an archival copy of the Valenzetti Equation in his estate.

Pure speculation, but even if Troup's possessions were to be put up for auction, I doubt the person in charge of his estate would put the Valenzetti Equation up along with the rest of his books.

I'm thinking an old copy will be found in Troup's estate.

6/18/2006 1:12 PM  
Blogger Matt the Pale said...


Anyone live in New York? Go visit Troup.

Gary Troup
481 West 68th Street
New York, NY 10023

Source: Borders Books

Note: This is probably not a real address.

6/18/2006 2:08 PM  
Blogger fitz66 said...

actually it is an address

6/18/2006 7:13 PM  
Blogger vexingmodstwo said...

I think the only way to really get to the bottom of the Valenzetti equation "mystery" is to actively pursue it "in-character".

I created this blog (with Matt's assistance) to be the "public" or "in character" face to these efforts.


I know we've got at least one "insider", Speaker at ITE, who's looked at the blog. I'm sure the PTB's have seen it.

6/19/2006 9:03 AM  
Blogger zky said...

It isn't a real address. West 68th ends before the 400's.

6/21/2006 7:32 AM  
Blogger amie said...

I think that Valenzetti is Alvar Hanso, or at least he assumed AH’s identity after coming up with the equation.
- It seems as though EV and AH would have been born around the same time, they would be approx the same age (EV: 77 – 86 years old / AH: at least 85)
- THF is founded almost immediately after the equation is presented. Could they be brothers, or … twins? the children or grandchildren of Magus Hanso.
- After Valenzetti solved some equation, he destroyed his work, not unlike AH buying up all the copies and the copyright. And if EV=AH, no need to keep a copy, he would have destroyed that too.
- All we know is that Valenzetti died in a plane crash, too little information to confirm that it was in fact he who died.
- That Hanso would suddenly go from arms dealer to humanitarian foundation is just too similar to Alias’ Sloan going from evil spy to director of a World Health-type organisation. He had a hidden agenda too – poisoning the world’s water supply if I remember correctly.

6/22/2006 2:40 PM  
Blogger TEAM Lena said...

Matt...wow! I have so many (for now private) theories involving this. I just wanna thank you for putting this all together!

6/28/2006 1:40 AM  
Blogger stinkowoman said...

So do you really think that the hieroglyphs are a part of the equation?

6/29/2006 2:18 PM  
Blogger wickerjay said...

I've thought for a while now that the "numbers" in Lost are actually the values for the variables in the Valenzetti Equation which is why they are so important and a reoccuring theme on the show and the ARG. This would be a big departure from other famous predicting equations like the Drake equation where there is no possible way of knowing the exact values for the varibales.

Does this make sense to anybody else?

7/04/2006 2:24 PM  
Blogger lost_tailies said...

Does anyone else think that Cindy is a Hanso cronie? If he's researching for a book on Hanso, that would be a good way for them to keep tabs on what he's doing. Not sure why else she would keep being mentioned. He's dead so what's the purpose of even knowing a relationship existed?

7/07/2006 4:37 AM  

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